The Builders Merchants Federation’s (BMF) latest Builders Merchants Industry Forecast Report presents a lacklustre picture if there is a no deal Brexit.
The report analyses the key factors affecting builders’ merchants’ activity to project future sales from October 2020 to the end of 2021.
Against the turbulent combination of COVID-19 and Brexit, both the final quarter of this year and the coming year prove difficult to forecast.
The BMF reports the sector remains resilient but overall confidence is subdued with Government restrictions still in place, resulting in the forecast for an 11.1% decline in average year-on-year growth for 2020.
The outcome of the Brexit trade talks dominates the forecast for 2021, with the Report analysing two scenarios, the first based on Brexit with a deal, the second on Brexit without a deal.
Under the first scenario, Quarter 1 2021 performance shows strong growth (+8%) if a trade deal is agreed, alongside the implementation of the Covid vaccination programme.
However, Q1 2021 growth is limited to +3.3% under the no deal scenario.
The forecast shows the outcome of the trade deal affecting sales during the whole of 2021.
Against the backdrop of a poor performing 2020, the forecast with a trade deal shows growth of 16.8%, but a more pessimistic increase of 12.5% if no deal can be concluded.
The Builders Merchants Industry Forecast includes an overview of economic performance and the valuation of the European Builders Merchants market, alongside the impact of Brexit on immigration and employment.
To help merchants, the BMF has called on Government to extend the deadline of the Trade Credit Insurance re-assurance scheme until June 30, 2021.
A PDF edition of the Autumn COVID-19 Special Edition Builders Merchants Industry Forecast 2020-2021 can be purchased for £250 +VAT.
Contact Nyssa Patel, BMF industry analyst/economist on 02476 854994.